The World Health Organization (WHO) warned member states of an impending pandemic from a novel coronavirus, named COVID-19. Like many emerging 'zoonotic' diseases, the virus likely originated in bats, spread to other animals, and then 'jumped species' to afflict humans who lacked inherited immunity. In the past 30 years, outbreaks of SARS, MERS, H1N1 flu, and Ebola had followed similar pathways.

By late-January, numerous health, economic and security advisers in and outside the Trump administration predicted that COVID-19 would spread globally with lethal impact. President Trump either ignored or disparaged these predictions, telling aides that he formulated policy based on his "instinct" or "gut," not the bellyaching of career officials and scientists he suspected of working for what he labeled the "deep state."

As a measure of his disdain for science, Trump had dissolved several working groups inside federal agencies that the Bush and Obama administrations had tasked with preparing for global health threats. Although no president could prevent a pandemic, the lack of preparation left the country woefully unprepared.

Nations have often responded to pandemics by blaming others. For example, the transmission of syphilis from the New World in the 1490s led Spain, France and England to accuse each other of creating the disease. The outbreak of bubonic plague in the 14th century was attributed to Jews.

The global influenza outbreak of 1918 was dubbed the Spanish flu, mostly because it was first reported that spring in Spanish newspapers that, unlike the wartime press in most countries, remained uncensored. The disease may actually have originated among soldiers in Kansas in the spring of 1918. When infections worsened in the fall, conspiracy mongers suggested Germany, near defeat, had unleashed a biological weapon.

Slow reporting of the 1918 flu contributed to worldwide deaths of over 50 million and as many as 600,000 American fatalities. Then, like now, few medical responses beyond masks, social distancing, and hand washing mitigated the spread. President Woodrow Wilson, who suffered a serious infection in Paris early in 1919 while negotiating the treaty ending World War I, remained oddly silent.

The nation's mayors took the lead in imposing public health measures. Cities like New York and St. Louis that strictly limited public gatherings, mandated wearing masks and closed many businesses, experienced lower infection and death rates than those like Philadelphia that ignored precautions. When Denver eased restrictions prematurely, the flu returned with a vengeance. Cities enforcing stringent restrictions recovered economically much faster than those that conducted business as usual.

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