Amid ongoing global trade and economic uncertainties, Hong Kong exporters have adopted a more cautious stance in the first quarter of 2026, despite a strong export performance in the last few months, according to new research from the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC). The HKTDC 1Q26 Export Confidence Index, released today, showed moderate declines for two key indicators, the Current Performance Index and the Expectation Index. For 1Q26, the Current Performance Index stood at 46.5. Meanwhile, the Expectation Index returned a figure of 46.9, reflecting caution among survey respondents in light of the uncertain external environment.Trade value expectations, however, remained relatively steady. The Trade Value Sub-Index stayed near the neutral threshold, with the Current reading at 50.9 and the Expectation reading at 49.1. This suggests that unit prices are expected to hold firm in the next few months. Meanwhile, both the Current and Expected Inventory Sub-Index rose above 60, indicating inventory rundown amid growing shipments in the early months of the year.
Market outlook: Cautious optimism
Commenting on the findings, HKTDC Director of Research, Bruce Pang, said: “The outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has moderated somewhat, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, largely on account of ongoing geopolitical developments. In the longer term, however, fundamental demand – especially for electronics and other consumer sectors – remains resilient. Hong Kong’s trade prospects should stay positive, yet remain cautious, pending the further easing of global geopolitical conflicts.”
Sector performance: Jewellery and clothing outperform
Despite the overall softening, several key sectors outperformed the overall Index. Most notably, the jewellery sector rallied impressively, supported by robust sales and sizeable new orders. The jewellery sector’s Current reading climbed to 57.1 (up 5.9), while its Expectation reading rose to 56.0 (up 1.1). The clothing sector also showed considerable improvement, with its Current Index rising to 52.1 (up 6.1) and its Expectation Index increasing by 9.2 points to 53.4. However, sentiment among electronics exporters weakened, with a Current reading of 44.9 and an Expectation reading of 45.6, signalling disruptions over the Chinese New Year period.
Cost pressures showed signs of stabilising. Although still in negative territory, the Cost Sub-Index improved significantly, with the Current reading rising 15.2 points to 38.1 and its Expectation reading up by 8.5 points to 41.3. This indicates potential sustained relief from cost pressures, despite recent surges in oil and energy prices triggered by developments in the Middle East. The impact of the recent conflict in the region was not factored into this survey as the fieldwork was carried out in January and February.
E-commerce as a growing sales channel
As part of the same survey, HKTDC Research also conducted a thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters’ cross-border e-commerce business. The findings showed that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, while a further 20% plan to enter the sector within the coming year.
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