The latest analysis of TMT rebar prices trends reveals a continuous downward trajectory across late 2024, reflecting weakening demand, fluctuating raw material costs, and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting global steel markets. Based on pricing data for TMT Rebar Fe 500D 12 mm (BF), FOB India, year-on-year (YoY) prices for October, November, and December 2024 declined by 2%, 3%, and 4% respectively compared to 2023 levels. Expert Market Research forecasts indicate that prices in early 2025 are likely to remain volatile, shaped by global trade dynamics, government policy changes, and ongoing supply chain disruptions.In October 2024, TMT rebar prices were recorded at 676 USD/MT, slightly below the 688 USD/MT seen in 2023, marking a 2% YoY decline. This softening trend is attributed to sluggish construction activity in key markets, reduced export orders, and fluctuating iron ore and coking coal prices. As infrastructure spending varied across regions, buying sentiments remained limited, contributing to muted price movements.
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By November, TMT rebar values dropped further to 647 USD/MT against 664 USD/MT in the same month of 2023, representing a 3% YoY fall. Market analysts highlight that elevated input costs, coupled with weakened global demand, intensified pressure on producers. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and freight cost fluctuations played a key role in shaping purchasing patterns across emerging Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
The downtrend continued into December 2024, with prices falling to 616 USD/MT, compared to 643 USD/MT in December 2023, amounting to a 4% YoY decline—the steepest drop in the quarter. While seasonal slowdowns are typical during this period, the broader structural challenges, including excess supply and reduced export competitiveness, added to the decline. Domestic mills also faced margin pressures as competition increased due to rising inventories.
Looking ahead, Expert Market Research anticipates that TMT rebar prices may remain highly volatile throughout early 2025. Key influences include potential shifts in global trade regulations, evolving government infrastructure policies, and persistent supply chain bottlenecks. Although some stabilization may emerge if construction activity rebounds or if raw material costs tighten, the broader price outlook suggests fluctuating but subdued movement.
As the steel industry navigates this uncertain landscape, stakeholders across construction, real estate, and manufacturing will closely monitor TMT rebar prices trends to align procurement strategies and manage cost pressures effectively.